Product Demand Forecast by Meteorological Data

Japan Weather Association’s “Product demand forecast information provision and consulting service (Product Demand Forecast Business*1) based on meteorological information” meets INTAGE’s Nationwide Retail Store Panel Survey (SRI+^®)*2 for additional demand forecast capability in order to deliver high-accuracy forecast data to our users.

SRI+、ecoxロジ、日本気象協会ロゴ

What you will know (1)

You will know the future demand a few days to a few months ahead based on the analysis of past market data and weather forecast data.

What you will know (2)

You will know the demand by category, broken down by SKUs, for each area or industry. * Based on SRI+ data unit

What you will know (3)

You can find everything from the expected demands you are interested in from the category’s demand trend to useful data for production and delivery planning for in-house products.

Service overview

This service offers SRI+ data for users’ use as “data to show the future” through demand forecast based on meteorological data, with enterprises contracted for SRI+ data disclosing their SRI+ data to Japan Weather Association.

This service is based on the terms and conditions for “data utilization by third-party disclosure and use*3” by contract with SRI+ data-subscribed enterprises.

Features of product demand forecast by meteorological data

Transforming “weather” into opportunities instead of risk

Weather can be characterized as/by:

1）
A risk factor for all kinds of industries
2）
Unprecedented extreme weather occurrences increasing due to climate change
3）
Data that allows for high-accuracy forecasts of the future using physical techniques

Japan Weather Association aims to transform business risks into opportunities by putting “weather” to good use. The Association delivers a characteristic forecast service by utilizing “the world’s most accurate and detailed meteorological data” as well as its proprietary “population-weighted temperature” and “sensible temperature” to further enhance the accuracy of the demand forecast.

日本地図と気象一覧イメージ図

Improving the accuracy of demand forecasts by using SRI+

While various kinds of data, including POS data and shipment data, are used in demand forecasting, the adoption of SRI+ further adds precision to the resulting forecast data.*

Utilizing past SRI+ data

Users can receive a service that analyzes the relationship between a specific product and the weather (weather sensitivity) by providing SRI+ data from the past few years to Japan Weather Association.
Demand forecast information also becomes available from the demand forecast formula based on the analysis results.

Utilizing the latest SRI+ data

By providing Japan Weather Association with your latest SRI+ data, you can receive demand forecast results with even higher accuracy derived from our sophisticated formulas.
* The SRI+ can accurately capture the market movements that are affected by weather thanks to its outlier data cleaning process, which makes it suitable for generating high-precision models.

Supporting various common consumables categories

Japan Weather Association uses SRI+ data, which is a collection of sales information that covers various product categories, for analytical experimentation of identifying categories that have high weather sensitivity.
Weather-sensitive product categories, identified from previous outcomes, are product categories where we can expect high demand forecast effects.
Additionally, this analysis has also verified categories other than food whose demand forecast can be effectively derived from meteorological data.

Click here for the feature and the survey overview of the Nationwide Retail Store Panel Survey (SRI+)

SRI+データの主な提供カテゴリ―イメージ図

How to use SRI+ (Nationwide Retail Store Panel Survey)

ABC analysis

課題：気象と関連ある商品をまず知りたい

Visualization of peak in and peak out

課題：商品の「売れ始め」「ピーク」「終売」タイミングを知りたい

Demand forecast

課題：定量的に何個（いくら）売れるか予測したい

Finding the contributing factors

課題：過去の売上要因を紐解きたい

*1. Product demand forecast business: Forecasts future product volume demand with high accuracy by analyzing meteorological data and the product’s sales data. It offers demand forecasts and consulting on the basis of weather information.

*2. SRI+ data (Nationwide Retail Store Panel Survey data): Retail store sales data collected daily and continuously from approximately 4,000 stores nationwide, including supermarkets, convenience stores, home improvement centers, discount stores, drugstores, and specialty stores. INTAGE’s SRI+ data has the largest sample design volume and chain coverage among the national retail store panels.**
* SRI+ involves statistical processing and does not disclose any information that identifies the survey monitor stores.
** As of March 2019

*3. Third-party disclosure and use: Included in the contract that is entered into between INTAGE and a client, and a rule that is to be followed by a SRI+ data subscriber who agrees to the disclosure of a part of the panel survey database to third parties.

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